Craig's Winter Weather - 2024-2025 - Follow @BowechoF5
WINTER WEATHER PREDICTION - PREDICTION FACTORS
What kind of year are we in?
| Year | Kind of year? |
| 2000 - 2001 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA) |
| 2001 - 2002 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2002 - 2003 | Moderate El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2003 - 2004 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2004 - 2005 | Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2005 - 2006 | Forecast is for an in between year - No El Nino or La Nina influence. |
| 2006 - 2007 | Very marginable El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2007 - 2008 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2008 - 2009 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2009 - 2010 | El Nino in place early, became stronger as winter went along - (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2010 - 2011 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2011 - 2012 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA |
| 2012 - 2013 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2013 - 2014 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A STRONG LA NINA |
| 2014-2015 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2015 - 2016 | Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2016-2017 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA |
| 2017 - 2018 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA … again. |
| 2018 - 2019 | A Weak El Nino was in place (usually means better chances at above average temps, and below normal snowfall) |
| 2019 - 2020 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2020 - 2021 |
La Nina
(usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in
smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2021 - 2022 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2022 - 2023 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2023 - 2024 | Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2024-2025 | La Nina Watch - expected (60% chance) to be a short lived La Nina this winter, but weak. Should have minimal affect on winter this season. |
First Snow Accumulation (1"+)
(Measured in Chanhassen - even if it is just grassy surfaces & not pavement)
| Year | Date |
| 2000 - 2001 | November 7th |
| 2001 - 2002 | November 26th |
| 2002 - 2003 | December 4th |
| 2003 - 2004 | November 3rd |
| 2004 - 2005 | January 12th |
| 2005 - 2006 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 18th Actual: Nov. 16th |
| 2006 - 2007 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th Actual: Dec. 21st |
| 2007 - 2008 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 19th Actual: Dec. 1st |
| 2008 - 2009 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 14th Actual: Nov 7th! |
| 2009 - 2010 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 25th (Oct 12th snow
happened prior to predictions) Actual: Dec 8th |
| 2010 - 2011 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 15th Actual: Nov 13th |
| 2011 - 2012 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th Actual: Nov 19th |
| 2012 - 2013 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 20th Actual: December 9th |
| 2013 - 2014 | Craig's Pediction: Nov 29th Actual: Nov 5th |
| 2014 - 2015 | Craig's Prediction: November 24th Actual: November 10th |
| 2015 - 2016 | Craig's Prediction: November 29th Actual: 11/30 - 2.1" |
| 2016- 2017 | Craig's Prediction: November 20th Actual: November 22nd |
| 2017- 2018 | Craig's
Prediction: November 19th Actual: December 4th |
| 2018- 2019 | Craig's Prediction: November 14th Actual: November 9th |
| 2019- 2020 | Craig's
Prediction: November 26th Actual: November 26th - SPOT ON!! |
| 2020- 2021 | Craig's
Prediction: N/A Actual: Oct 20th! HISTORIC!! |
| 2021 - 2022 | Craig's
Prediction: November 28th Actual: December 1st |
| 2022- 2023 | Craig's
Prediction: November 1st Actual: November 14th |
| 2023 - 2024 | Craig's
Prediction: October 31st Actual: October 31st - this snow occured prior to releasing predictions |
| 2024 - 2025 | Craig's
Prediction: November 30th Actual: November 20th |
Weather Fun
(Measured at Chanhassen)
| Event | Prediction | Actual |
| Best Snowpack | Anytime in Jan. & late Feb/early Mar | Still TBD |
| Coldest Period(s) | Anytime in Feb | Still TBD |
| Warmest Period(s) | November | Stll TBD |
| BIGGEST Storm(s) | 1st half of March, possibly January as well | Still TBD |
| White X-mas? | Yes, 3-5" on the ground as snow cover | Still TBD |
 |
First Technical "Plow" for Snow Removal Services
Measured at Chanhassen
| Year | Date |
| 2014 - 2015 | Prediction:
December 6th Actual: November 10th |
| 2015 - 2016 | Prediction: November 29th Actual: November 30th |
| 2016- 2017 | Prediction:
December 3rd Actual: November 22nd |
| 2017-2018 | Prediction: November 28th
Actual: December 4th |
| 2018- 2019 |
Prediction:
November 28th Actual: November 28th |
| 2019-2020 | Prediction:
December 5th
Actual: November 26th |
| 2020- 2021 |
Prediction:
December 2nd Actual: November 10th |
| 2021 - 2022 | Prediction:
December 1st
Actual: November 7th |
| 2022 - 2023 | Prediction: December 7th
Actual: November 14th |
| 2023 - 2024 |
Prediction: December 5th
Actual: December 31st |
| 2024 - 2025 |
Prediction: November 30th Actual: TBD Still |
Season Snowfall Potential
Measured at Chanhassen
| Inches | % Chance | Notes |
| 40-60 | 45% |
40-60" inches means average Equal chances at a little below average and also a little above average Better chance at an extreme snowfall of over 70 inches rather than a way below snow total of less than 25 inches |
| 25-40 | 20% | |
| 60-70 | 20% | |
| > 70 | 10% | |
| < 25 | 5% |
Snow Plower's Delight
(Measured in Chanhassen)| Inches | Predicted Season Quantity | Actual '24-'25 so far... |
| .5 - 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 1.0 - 1.5 | 3 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 - 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 - 8 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 - 12 | 1 | 0 |
| 12+ | 0 | 0 |
Temperature Outlook
| Month | Avg. Mean | Prediction / Actual |
| October | 49 | Pred: No Predition in time Actual: 7.4o Above Normal! |
| November | 34 | Pred: 3-6o
above normal Actual: 3.3o Above Normal! |
| December | 20 | Pred: 1-3o above normal Actual: |
| January | 16 | Pred: 1-3o
above normal Actual: TBD |
| February | 20 | Pred: 1-3o above normal Actual: |
| March | 33 | Pred: 1-3o
above normal Actual: TBD |
| April | 47 | Pred: Near Average Actual: |
Craig's 2024-2025 Winter Snowfall prediction:
48.9"
Snowfall Monthly Averages
| Month | Snowfall Average |
| October | 0.6 |
| November | 9.3 |
| December | 11.5 |
| January | 12.1 |
| February | 7.8 |
| March | 10.2 |
| April | 2.5 |
| Total | 54.0 |
Craig's monthly snowfall predictions and actuals - Follow @BowechoF5
| YEAR | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | TOTAL |
| OCT. |
OCT. |
NOV. |
NOV |
DEC. | DEC. | JAN. | JAN. | FEB. | FEB | MAR. | MAR. | APR. | APR. | TOTAL | DIFF. | ||
| 2000-2001 | 0.0 | n/a | 9.8 | n/a | 30.2 | n/a | 9.4 | n/a | 16.5 | n/a | 8.6 | n/a | 1.3 | n/a | 75.8 | 64.0 | 11.8 |
| 2001-2002 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 16.8 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 62.0 | 4.0 |
| 2002-2003 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 22.4 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 31.7 | 52.8 | 21.1 |
| 2003-2004 | Trace | 0.0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 21.5 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | Trace | 1.0 | 66.3 | 58.4 | 7.9 |
| 2004-2005 | Trace | Trace | 0.5 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 6.6 | 11.6 | Trace | Trace | 25.5 | 49.7 | 24.2 |
| 2005-2006 | n/a | 0.0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 20.3 | 17.0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.2 | 54.4 | 5.2 |
| 2006-2007 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 16.4 | 17.5 | 10.2 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.1 | 47.9 | 0.7 |
| 2007-2008 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 21.3 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 18.4 | 25.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 60.5 | 61.7 | 1.2 |
| 2008-2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 21.8 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 19.8 | 3.1 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 56.8 | 68.8 | 12.0 |
| 2009-2010 | 3.6 | 3.6 | Trace | 2.7 | 20.9 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 14.8 | 18.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 41.8 | 47.7 | 5.9 |
| 2010-2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 8.3 | 36.4 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 22.6 | 16.2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 91.5 | 72.0 | 19.5 |
| 2011-2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 19.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 22.2 | 58.3 | 36.1 |
| 2012-2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 18.0 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 22.8 | 3.5 | 71.9 | 50.4 | 21.9 |
| 2013-2014 | Trace | Trace | 1.8 | 3.8 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 18.3 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 69.5 | 41.4 | 28.1 |
| 2014-2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 15.3 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 33.4 | 52.7 | 19.3 |
| 2015-2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 12.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35.5 | 32.6 | 2.9 |
| 2016-2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 18.4 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 19.4 | Trace | 12.9 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 38.5 | 55.9 | 17.4 |
| 2017-2018 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 28.1 | Trace | 80.9 | 51.9 | 29 |
| 2018-2019 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 33.8 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 11.4 | Trace | 78.6 | 48.7 | 29.9 |
| 2019-2020 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 10.4 | 19.4 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 53.8 | 57.1 | 3.3 |
| 2020-2021 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 49.7 | 62.8 | 13.1 |
| 2021-2022 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 49.7 | 62.8 | 13.1 |
| 2022-2023 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 23.5 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 7.5 | 18.1 | 7.1 | 20.9 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 102.4 | 39.5 | 62.9 |
| 2023-2024 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 8.8 | Trace | 0.5 | 26.3 | 41.8 | 15.5 |
| 2024-2025 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 48.9 | |||||||
| OCT. |
OCT. |
NOV. |
NOV |
DEC. | DEC. | JAN. | JAN. | FEB. | FEB | MAR. | MAR. | APR. | APR. | TOTAL | DIFF. | ||
| YEAR | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | TOTAL |
| Cumulative Difference = | 398.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total Years = | 24 | ||||||||||||||||
| Average Difference = | 16.62 |
