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CLICK HERE TO GO
TO MY “STATS/PREDICTION PAGE” – this page has all the numbers.
Below is my “worded” blog about the winter ahead and my predictions.
ENSO - Recent Evolution Predictions
(updated on October 19, 2026)
NEWS BRIEF: I
quote: “The El Nino is now the strongest ever recorded on
earth. Very big impact to winter 2026-2027 pattern across
the U.S.”
Status: El Nino Advisory
ENSO: El Nino is present as of
October 19, 2026
Equatorial sea surface temps are above average
across the east-central & eastern Pacific Ocean.
The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Nino.
El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong to
VERY strong El Nino LIKELY through January-March (remaining
greater than an 83% chance)
FROM CRAIG: What I get out of this
is plain and simple. We already have El Nino, and it is
getting stronger. I think questions that we have are how
long will it last and how long will it be strong? Those are
good questions when considering storm tracks throughout the
season.
COMMON STORM TRACK:
The common storm track for any El Nino season is
across the southern US states. What we usually see is that
the southern jet does not really meet up with the northern
jet that often bringing a train of storms across the south
with massive amounts of Pacific moisture. That normally
leaves Minnesota warmer and dryer when this happens. But,
for example, back during the winter of 2010-2011, we had a
strong La Nina going on and the projected storm track for
Minnesota was from the Northwest. Usually brings cooler
winters along with “snowier” conditions. What happened in
2010-2011 is that northern jet sat in place and the lower
jet was ejecting storm after storm across the Midwest and
where those 2 jet streaks commonly adjoined was over
Minnesota. Why is this important? Well, the exact opposite
could happen on El Nino seasons where we have a super
charged southern jet that ejects storms across the southern
tier states but yet connects enough with the upper jet to
push some moisture north with each crossing storm. We may
not get pelted with big storms, but we could get a piece of
each storm. So many things can happen, but I personally
believe when this happens, this is when we get our 60-70
inch winters in Minnesota during El Nino seasons. It is
never a perfect scenario and/or easily predicted - but what
we do know is that some El Nino winter seasons do push a
couple VERY large snowstorms across the upper Midwest, and
as explained more later in my blog, that can create more
snow over-all because of 10+ inch snowstorms, but not a
snowy season or frequently snowy.
QUICK NOTE WITH THE STORM TRACK:
West coast, fires, burning for the past couple years and
into the rockies, terrain is now more bare, perfect timing
for the perfect storm on mudslides with heavy rain moving in
through southern California and through part of the Rockies,
could be a recipe for mudslide disasters. We have already
seen some of this going on and it may get worse! El Nino
storm track is not good for this. And now we have a possible
Super El Nino! At the time that I wrote this blog,
California was already getting whipped up/rough coastal
conditions with high tide and causing a lot of problems.
Just wait until more storms get involved. Can be very bad.
STATS & WEATHER TRENDS:
With “Super El Nino” forecasted, let’s look at the
past strongest El Nino’s on record - not just any old El
Nino, just looking at the strongest ones:
“VERY STRONG” EL NINO WINTER SEASONS:
82-83 = 74.4”
97-98 = 45.0”
2015-2016 = 36.7”
“STRONG” EL NINO WINTER SEASONS
57-58 = 21.2”
65-66 = 36.1”
72-73 = 41.7”
87-88 = 42.4”
91-92 = 84.1”
2023-2024 = 29.5”
There are 9 recorded strong or very strong El Nino winter
seasons.
We are either far below normal or we are far above normal,
there seems to be no “average” seasons when this happens.
Now we are having a “super el nino” and could be stronger
than any recorded. This is a potential monster we have never
witnessed before, very tough to predict.
Out of the 9 El Nino season above, 7 of the 9 are well below
normal. That means 2 of them were way above normal as far as
snowfall is concerned. Interesting…
OTHER INTERESTING ITEMS?
Hurricane Season = no Hurricanes in the Atlantic
before September 21st means it broke a 112 year record at
that time. Then it lasted into October which broke the
all-time record. No Hurricanes in the Atlantic in
August/September has only happened a handful of times (1962,
1972, 1994).
How much snow did Minneapolis get in 1962, 1972, and 1994?
1962-1963 = 34.5”
1972-1973 = 41.7”
1994-1995 = 29.6
Folks, this is an average of 35.3”, which is pretty close to
20 inches BELOW NORMAL. Could be a challenging season for
snow lovers, winter getaway resorts/skiing/sledding, and
snow removal companies.
NOTE: We are coming off the 5th
warmest summer’s ever for the Twin Cities.
TOP 10 WARMEST? And how much snow did we get the following
winter?
1. 2021 = 50.2”
2. 1988 = 70.1”
3. 1933 = 25.6”
4. 2012 = 67.7”
5,6. 2026 & 2023 tied = 2026 TBD, 2023 = 29.5”
7,8. 2006 $ 1949 tied = 2006 = 35.5”, 1949 = 51.6”
9,10. 2010 & 1936 = 2010 = 86.6”, 1936 = 44.6”
To me, if you look at the snow totals within the
warmest summers (may not be El Nino influenced) - then I’d
give it a better chance at being above normal than below
normal this winter season ahead. Food for thought?
Definitely interesting and bucks the trends…
FALL WEATHER? - I like to review
each season how fast leaves turn colors and essentially fall
and compare it to how winter was thereafter.
(2026 fall so far is almost the opposite of 2025 fall.
Leaves turned early and fell at a steady pace pretty much on
time, but a bit behind. Plus, it has been a wet fall in
2026. Last year was very dry)
MORE RECENT PAST SEASONS WITH LEAVES TURNING/FALLING CLOSE
TO ON TIME?
Fall 0f 2022 was similar enough to this year = that
winter had = 90.3” !!!
2016 was similar enough = that winter had = 32.0”
2012 was an earlier start, not quite the same as
this year, but that winter thereafter dropped 67.7” of snow.
2008 had some similarities, that winter had 45” of snow.
2004 had heavy wet leaves to move around, and that’s what we
have going on this season, and 2004’s winter accumulated 25”
of snow.
Of the above year’s mentioned, here is what the
ocean was doing:
2004 = Strong El Nino = so way below snowfall.
2008 & 2012 = La Nada - so in-between El Nino & La Nina - no
relevance to this year, so let’s scratch the near normal and
above normal snowfalls these 2 seasons.
2016 = this was La Nina with the 32 inches of snow, so will
need to dismiss this season as well.
2022 = same thing, was La Nina with a ton of snow.
So, I am looking at the 2004 fall season that had a
strong El Nino, had a similar fall season, and had WAY below
snowfall.
OCTOBER TID-BIT! This just in! We just had
a 3rd warmest October on record now as well! Wow! 2 months
in a row. And on that list, here are some other years that
were record breaking in October stated below, and how much
snow fell the following winter:
1947 = 49.1”
1963 = 28.9”
1900 = 41.5”
2024 = 29.4”
1953 = 25.7”
1956 = 39.1”
1924 = 23.2”
2021 = 50.2”
Folks, that is 8 total years stated above with VERY warm
Octobers, and 8 years that were technically below normal as
far as total snowfall is concerned. 2 of the years listed
are close to average, but still not average.
THIS JUST IN ON NOVEMBER 6TH:
We just tied for 3rd on the “latest freeze” chart. Here are
the top 6 late freezes below and what happened that winter:
2016 = 32.0”
1900 = 41.5”
1958 = 19.1”
1940 = 52.5”
1894 = 16.2”
1924 = 23.2”
These are some amazingly low snow totals for fall seasons
that were warm and had very late “first” freezes. The total
average of these 6 seasons above is 30.75” !!!
WHAT IS NOAA SAYING? (Dec, Jan,
Feb)
STATEMENT:
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, released, shows how El
Nino will likely influence the upcoming winter months
(December 2026 to February 2027), with warmer-than-average
temperatures expected across the northern U.S.;
wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern
U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern
Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the
country, including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains
and Southwest.
SUMMARY:
“As we know from decades of observations, a very
strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward
shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts
the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken
Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While
higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to
drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil
can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the
time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the
upcoming winter.”
TEMPERATURE:
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for
temperature shows the greatest chances for
warmer-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest,
northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the
East and Alaska.
PRECIPITATION:
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for
precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most
likely across the Southwest, South and East Coast.
Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the
northern Rockies and Great Lakes, and central Alaska.
NOAA IN SUMMARY IN CRAIG’S WORDS:
Main points taken above:
“very strong El Nino likely” - no words yet that this will
be one we have never seen or historic. Not saying it will
not be, but a lot of “people” are talking about the
“strongest ever”, etc. NOAA is more patient to see how it
plays out.
Storm track shifts to south/SE - this is key for our
(Minnesota) weather and how this ends up playing out. Does
it stay very separated from the northern jet? If so, we will
be way below normal in snowfall accumulation.
And when NOAA talked about temperature and precipitation for
Minnesota, they are forecasting a cookie cutter map so to
speak. They are taking the averages of what strong El Nino
seasons often do to affect our nations weather. And the maps
created look like a cut & paste from 2023-2024 when we also
had a “strong” El Nino, and we received about 41 inches of
snow in the Minneapolis area.
QUICK SUMMARY: Minnesota’s odds
are higher to be warmer than normal, and then precipitation
has equal chances. Will it be dry? Will it be more drizzle,
frz rain, and plain old rain, but normal precipitation
totals? Will it still be cold enough for a lot of snow, but
temps remain “above normal”? For a decent amount of time
during the winter, our average high is around 25 degrees. If
we have a warmer than normal winter, that could mean an
average for a specific period of time of 30 degrees, which
would mean highs fluctuating between 20 degrees and 40
degrees, right? Does that mean snow? Does that mean rain?
Who knows, and anybody’s guess does not have to be educated.
WHAT IS THE FARMERS’ ALMANAC
SAYING?
“UPPER MIDWEST”
Expect milder months in the Upper Midwest to
transition to colder-than-normal temperatures as winter
continues. While snow will be near to below normal, there
are many chances for flakes to fly in the new year.
• Temperatures: Above normal
• Coldest period: Mid- to late January
• Precipitation: Above normal in the east; below normal in
the west (in terms of the midwest)
• Snowfall: Near to below normal
• Snowiest periods: Early and late January, late February,
and early March
In Summary from the Farmers’ Almanac - this tells
me they are alluding to the most snow for Minnesota to fall
during the second half of the winter season. It also makes
me think this could be a heavier March/April snow season and
maybe even a very cool April.
HOW ABOUT
ACCUWEATHER? (here are some key quotes about our area):
KEY POINTS:
A record-setting El Niño is expected to steer the
2026-2027 winter pattern, shifting storm tracks, snowfall
and temperatures across the country while bringing a
stormier setup to parts of the West.
The effects of El Niño across North America are amplified
during the winter months. Typically, it strengthens the
southern storm track, favoring more precipitation from
California through the Gulf Coast. Farther north,
warmer-than-average conditions are common, with fewer
intrusions of Arctic air.
December is expected to start on a warm note across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, limiting opportunities for
lake-effect snow. Shots of colder air may still dive south
from Canada as the season progresses, but average
temperatures throughout the winter season are predicted to
run above normal.
AccuWeather forecasts a “slower start to winter” from one of
their maps.
Another piece to watch will be how frequently storms track
through the central Plains. That pattern is expected to
become more evident during the middle and latter parts of
winter, and its frequency could determine whether some parts
of the Plains and Midwest make up early-season snowfall
deficits.
Something to think about from Craig. I have never seen
AccuWeather put this graphic out - but I did see on Facebook
that they released a map with some main cities showing in
the United States. Each main city shows a range of what the
projected snowfall will be, and the Twin Cities was listed
as 40”-55”. This points to a bit below normal. Bismark was
listed as 25”-35” which is interesting knowing their average
snow for a winter season is around 50”. That is the typical
upper Midwest warmer/dryer theme usually during El Nino
seasons - across the northern tier states (from west to east
- Washington to Idaho to Montana to the Dakotas and then
across portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin)
NOTE: Seems AccuWeather and the Farmers’ Almanac
are on the same page with a slow start to accumulating
snowfall across the upper Midwest, warmer in December, then
better chances later during the winter season to make up
snowfall totals. Once a pattern is stuck, though, it is
tough to break. We will see how it unfolds.
MY OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS?
LINK TO MY
STATS/PREDICTION PAGE
Once again, click on this LINK above that will take
you through many of my actual winter predictions (numbers).
I have been doing this for many years, and traditionally, I
still like to submit these numbers as my official
predictions for the upcoming winter season. Each month, I
will be updating on this link with what did happen
officially vs. my predictions, so keep an eye out for that.
IN SUMMARY:
Ultimately, it is always tough to be accurate in a
long-range scenario as far as weather is concerned. We are
all now right in front of social media posts, and you see a
lot of predictions out there and many people that really
know what they are talking about, right? Not necessarily
true, and sometimes I can say that about myself! I just have
done this for about 25 years. I love it and have fun with
it. Often, I do make some great calls/predictions prior to
the winter season. On the other hand, I also can have some
very “off” winter predictions.
This winter is obviously going to be powered
by/influenced from a very strong El Nino, likely something
we have never seen before. Keep in mind, during El Nino
seasons, if we are talking about the strength of storms,
usually strong El Ninos brews up the largest/most complex
storm systems. So, even though we may still be around
average for snowfall in the MPLS area by the end of the
winter season, it may be dependent on 2-3 very large
snowfalls - and if they happen or not. I really do not think
we will be sitting in the middle of January for example
experiencing consistent cold with consistent snowfalls.
Typically, it is not what happens during El Nino seasons as
the warmer spells seem to out-weigh the colder spells. Yes,
we will still get cold and snowy at times, but how many 10”+
snowfall will we see this season? That will play a big role
in our totals. Again, these are possible conditions we have
never seen before, so how much will all this Pacific
moisture coming in will interact with the upper (cooler)
jet? Will those cool spells be brief? Likely. Will they
always connect with the moisture? Maybe, but you can’t count
on it, but on El Nino types of seasons that the cold air
does interact with the moisture feed, it can mean above
average snowfall over-all.
As far as warmth, I feel this is a no-brainer and
overall, we will see warmer than average temps this season
across Minnesota. This is the easiest part of the long-range
forecast. I just do not see much of a chance to see below
normal temps this season. When the cold air does hit, it
will be briefer. I will be surprised if we see any “below
normal cold stretch” any longer than 7-days.
Going back to snow, if we do pile up some decent
snowfalls, I feel we will see a lot of melting in-between.
Foggy conditions, and a lot of potential “re-freeze”
conditions late at night and very early morning when the
temps get down to freezing after an above normal day. I have
also seen El Ninos making for nighttime temps struggling to
dip to freezing as well, and when we have night and day
above freezing for longer periods of time, then the surface
temps stay warmer and then we do not really see much
“re-freeze”. We will see. Also, when we get some snow going
and we have warmer surface temps, it takes heavier snow to
get much accumulation. We will see how this plays out as
well. Really can affect the grand totals.
LINK TO MY
STATS/PREDICTION PAGE
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