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CRAIG’S  Winter Weather Blog - Prediction

 
BLOG & PREDICTIONS OFFICIALLY RELEASED ON NOV 11, 2024

INTRO:

Weather, since I was a little boy, has been a significant passion and today the weather coincides with the industry I am in (snow removal services). It is merely a tradition nowadays for me to put together my predictions for the winter season. Because I have been doing it for a long time, year-to-year, as you will see on my predictions page. Am I good at it? Not sure. I have had “off years” but I can have “on years” as well. It is fun for me to explain my theories and stats season-to-season to go along with why I am predicting what I am predicting. I like to use math, certain trends, history, and review other predictions that have been released by “professionals”. I am definitely not a professional, but I will do my best (as always) to predict what I think will happen each winter season. The toughest part about all this is predicting further out – so that is why you will see later in my blog here that I state that I will do a mid-winter-season update/check-in sometime later in January like I have done in the past. It is hard enough to predict what will happen between now and January, let alone the entire winter season. I also found it really interesting to read this from NOAA this fall:
“In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA’s high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate and ocean predictions because understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public”
Obviously predicting weather trends long-term are becoming more and more important for society. I will do my best to explain my thoughts below. Enjoy!


LINKS:

Throughout my blog below, you will continue to see THIS LINK.
This is my stat page, or prediction page of the way I think the numbers will fall into place this winter. As I said above, I have been doing these stats for many years, and I carry it on as a tradition. Some people like reading a bunch, but some people like a pile of numbers in front of them. I recommend reading my full blog below before clicking over to
MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

TITLE?

When thinking about snow & temperatures this season, I title it as “Ordinary”. Which means “back to normal”. Remember last season’s no snow & warmth? That was not normal. That was a fluke. Remember 2 years ago with 90+ inches of snow? That was not normal. How about heading toward “normal” for this season, or as my title says “Ordinary”?? An old fashion ordinary Minnesota winter is what I am predicting. Yep, a boring predication, but honestly, I feel we will be around average for everything. Yes, some above, some below, but all-in-all – average.

ENSO - Recent Evolution Predictions:

Straight from NOAA = “La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.”

It is expected to be somewhat “La Niña”, yes, but weak. Is it going to influence our weather with major effects? Likely not. At times it may, but at times, it may feel the exact opposite of a La Niña season.

WHAT WAS SUMMER LIKE? (record rains first half/drought and record temps second half):

Very interesting summer to say the least. The last 2 summers prior to this past summer, we have had major drought conditions. Then we have one of our driest winters last season, and then one of our most wettest first half of the spring/summer season. Then (lots of thens’) – we had a very dry end to our summer season with record warmth in September, and record “dryness” as well. How do you use this type of trends and convert it into math, then future winter predictions? You don’t. But always something I like to think about going into winter and making predictions.

LINK TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

COMMON STORM TRACK:

When winter finally kicks in, we will have a weak La Nina working for us. This should keep the common storm track from NW to SE across the upper Midwest. These types of winters tend to bring more frequent smaller snowfalls to Minnesota. But, as I always say during La Nina seasons, if the “La Nina Pattern” can connect with the southern jet with all that moisture flowing in…where this connection is frequently made, it can really cause seriously above normal snowfall totals for a given area. Predicting where this might set up at this time is merely a guess, but southern Great Lake states and east is my best guess. So, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and into Pennsylvania is my target zone for the most snow. Also, another thing to consider is this is a “weak” La Nina. May not have much affect and yes, we will see our southwestern storms that are born down in the 4-corners (Colorado/Utah/Arizona/New Mexico) area, but not a ton, then we will mix in with the NWestern born Alberta Clippers. All said and done, “normal”. Or “Ordinary”.

STATS & WEATHER TRENDS:

 - Halloween snow? It is pretty ironic (likely coincidence) that last season we had around and inch of snow, and also now this Halloween we had the same thing. Does it mean this winter season may mirror last winter season? Any conspiracy theoretic people out there?
 - Active hurricane season? The last active Atlantic hurricane season was actually last season, 2023. Was not a record, but it was active. Then before that, we had a record Atlantic hurricane season in 2020. The winter of 2023-2024, snowfall total was = 29.5” (not a lot of snow). The winter of 2020-2021 gave us 48.7”. The year of 2005 brought us our most major hurricanes on record with 7 storms of that nature (major). That winter season for the Minneapolis area totaled 44.4” of snow. What I am seeing here is a below average theme if our winter seasons correlate at all with hurricane season. It seems this hurricane season has been really active, but looking at total numbers, at the time of writing, we have only had 13 named storms.
 - DRY Septembers in the past, what did winter look like following these dry Septembers? We had the driest September on record this season. Will that correlate with other dry Septembers that we have had and how the winter played out? Here are the top 7 driest Septembers:

 - #1 = 2024 : Winter snow total TBD
 - #2 = 2022 : Winter snow total = 90.3”
 - #3 = 1882 : Winter snow total = can’t find this total
 - #4 = 2012 : Winter snow total = 67.7”
 - #5 = 2011 : Winter snow total = 22.3”
 - #6 = 1940 : Winter snow total = 52.5”
 - #7 = 1952 : Winter snow total = 42.9”


FALL WEATHER? (some leaves fell earlier due to quickly drying conditions, but generally the fall became late in dropping leaves – later than average):

Within an industry that I personally work in (lawn & snow) – it is always a jinx when the leaves hang up too long in the fall. Why? Because usually we get slammed with an “all-of-a-sudden” snowstorm and my company along with many others do not get their leaves cleaned up. We had the Halloween “scare” this season once again with some snow, but after that it has really calmed down weather-wise, and we are heading to another above average November as far as temperatures are concerned. Will it turn cold enough toward the end of November to convert any moisture to snow? More on this talked about below.


WHAT IS NOAA SAYING?

“This winter, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states. La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier.” – specifically quoted for the months of December 2024 thru February 2025.

TO SUM IT UP FOR THE TWIN CITIES? Temps possibly a bit cooler than normal, but nothing dramatic. But it will seem much colder because of last year’s warmth. Snowfall? Slightly better chance at above normal snowfall, but nothing dramatic. They are predicting more of a “clipper” pattern for our area rather than southern storms which would equate to more frequent smaller snowfalls instead of larger storms. Does not mean we will not have a little bit of both, but odds favor more clipper type systems (northern track).

WHAT IS THE FARMERS’ ALMANAC SAYING?

Let’s first say this: The Farmers’ Almanac last season was way off! ‘nuff said!

"It’s cold in the Upper Midwest, but winter 2024-2025 will NOT be as cold as usual," the almanac says. "The coldest shots will occur in early November, early and late January, late February, and early March. Precipitation and snowfall will be below average for the Upper Midwest, with the snowiest periods in late November, late December, mid- and late January, early February, and mid-March," it claims.

In the end, this is not inline with NOAA’s official winter predictions for December 2024 thru February ”.

HOW ABOUT ACCUWEATHER? WHAT ARE THEY SAYING??

“Expect more snow than last year, especially the NE Great Lakes. The Midwest will see an uptick in snow.”

This sounds like a very obvious statement because we hardly had anything last season until the last second when the end of March made us get up to 30” of snow for a total. If that did not happen, we would have been in that 15-20” range which is about as bad as it gets. So, saying that we will have an uptick in snow is a pretty obvious statement to make because the odds are super low to be below last season. Captain obvious here!

What is interesting to me from AccuWeather is when they make these points:
1. “La Nina will play a roll, but a weak roll” (AGREE!)
2. “The polar vortex may bring bouts of bitterly cold air from the Great Lakes and East” (Minnesota is on the “west” edge of this prediction, but I AGREE we get involved with stronger cold snaps this winter)
3. “Warmer-than-average water temps in the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to mild air masses” (AGREE! – we are seeing the hurricanes intensifying in the Gulf rapidly this fall season. And when High pressure settles in over the Gulf or north of the Gulf, it spins in the warmer air from the Gulf to the north, clockwise. This could lead to substantial amount of snow somewhere this warm, more moist air, meets up with the Northern jet or even the southern jet as long as there is enough cold air in place – this convergence zone could be close to home!)

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS?  HEAD OVER TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

Once again, click on THIS LINK  that will take you through many of my actual winter predictions (numbers). I have been doing this for many years, and traditionally, I still like to submit these numbers as my official predictions for the upcoming winter season. Each month, I will be updating on that link with what did happen officially vs. my predictions, so keep an eye out for that. When I update these, I do post it on my Twitter handle @bowechoF5.

NEXT BLOG UPDATE?

Since my prediction this season came in a bit later, I will complete a smaller blog update sometime toward the end of January. I usually like to release my predictions and blog around Halloween, and this season, time did not allow for me to do so….
And Predicting 3-4 months out is merely impossible, so I am sure there will be some tweaks to be made at that time for the rest of the winter after I do discuss what has happened during the winter up to that point.

IN SUMMARY:

Expect winter to roll in sometime late in November or the first half of December. At the time of this this blog getting posted (11/11) – I do see some chance of larger storms second half of November. If those produce snow, we could get a large chunk of snow by the end of November. If those are more rain makers, I expect winter thereafter to come in slowly but surely, and possibly for snow lovers, a little too slow. Once the second half of December hits, I think we will start to see an improving snow cover across our area, which will create that colder/white Christmas. Will we have a ton of snow between now (November 11) and January 1st? I really feel that depends on November as I eluded to above. Let’s call for a below average snowfall in November, and an average December. Above normal (snow) in January. February and March should be average in the snow category. Temps? Expect warmer that average slowly transitioning to average conditions, then slightly below normal conditions in January & February, and then slightly above average temperatures in March.

Remember, my next update will be posted late in January.

@bowechoF5
LINK TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE