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CRAIG’S  Winter Weather Blog - Prediction

 
ORIGINAL BLOG POSTED ON Friday October 31, 2025

CLICK HERE TO GO TO MY “STATS/PREDICTION PAGE” – this page has all the numbers. Below is my “worded” blog about the winter ahead and my predictions.

ENSO - Recent Evolution Predictions (updated on October 20, 2025)

Status:
ENSO- La Nina is present as of October 20, 2025

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly below average across
most of the Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La
Niña.

La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 -
February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026
(55% chance)

FROM CRAIG: What this tells me is that we have La Nina conditions currently going on and will continue until Jan/Feb – then a transition to ENSO (Neutral) sometime in that Jan/Feb time frame. I think during those transition months we will see the most snow in the upper Midwest. Some signs of a strong showing for snowfall in March this season. Keep that in mind.

COMMON STORM TRACK:

I really feel that the storm tracks will be very mixed this season. Usually on a La Nina winter, Minnesota sees more Alberta Clippers (storms that come from NW Canada moving SE within the colder air patterns that occur). These typically bring lighter/fluffy snowfalls that are fast movers. But I do feel we will see our fair share of SW storms, which usually bring our largest most prolonged snowfalls (especially late November and into December, and then March again). If I had to take one storm track over another that Minnesota will see most, I’d pick the Alberta Clipper track. And last season was La Nina and it brought a winter across the upper Midwest that is opposite of what La Nina usually brings, so this season being a La Nina, I would bet on a more normal La Nina situation heavily.

There are also some signs/signals that the NorEaster types of systems may be more popular than normal this season, so we need to keep an eye out for that. And because there are signs of this pattern to happen a bit more this season, that tells me we will see more Alberta Clippers in Minnesota because usually these systems slide past MN and meet up with the strong energy to the SE, then ride up the coast as a monster storm.

STATS & WEATHER TRENDS:

Apparently, Siberia this fall has its largest snowpack earlier in October since 2022 and 2022 was that big winter that we had with 90+ inches of snow. So, it is colder there earlier this season and could lead to colder extremes earlier for Minnesota this season. I am not sold that this theory will bring early snow and a lot of snow earlier, but it is something worth noting for colder spells through the winter – or as many folks that may think they are experts…call it Polar Vortex. I laugh when I continue to hear that phrase too often.

LATE FIRST FREEZE? Minneapolis had its first freeze on October 24. On average, it is usually October 13. “Historically, a late first freeze correlates with a colder-than-average winter more often than with warmer ones, but a few years with a late freeze have still had above average temperatures.”
…I thought this was VERY interesting coming from an AI Overview.

FALL WEATHER? (2025 was a very late fall for leaves turning colors, and for leaves falling off trees):

MORE RECENT PAST SEASON’S WITH LATE FALLING LEAVES?

2021 - leaves fell at least 1 week behind, very similar to this fall: That winter we received = 50.1”

2015 – “leaves hung on”, therefor late falling: That winter we received = 36.7”

2013 – “leaves were stubborn and late falling”: That winter we received = 69.8”

The above 3 years mentioned had an above normal snow season, an average snow season, and a below average season. Not sure this really reflects anything important as far as how much snow we receive during the winter. And most meteorologists refer to December, January, & February as “winter”.

ARE YOU SUPERSTICIOUS?
Do things happen in 3’s?
Historically, when we do have 2 seasons in a row with below normal snowfall does not necessarily mean we are going to have an above normal snowfall the following year. It is all over the board with consistency. There are plenty of times when we have 3 seasons below normal and there is even a 6-year period with below normal snowfall between 2004-2009. In the end, no correlation. Way back, there is a 9 year stretch of below normal snowfall from 1952-1960. If we are going to say we are really going to get it this season just because we had 2 seasons in a row of below normal snowfall, there is no data backing this type of trend or “superstition”. Remember, we had almost doubled our “normal” snowfall 3 years ago during that one season. If you take the past 3 seasons and make an average, it is 49.73” of snow, almost exactly average. Who is to say that this season…“we are due” ?? Average sounds good to me.

WHAT IS NOAA SAYING? (Dec, Jan, Feb)

TEMPERATURE –

Temperature specifically about the upper Midwest: Below-average temperatures are slightly
favored from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. Below-average temperatures are also slightly favored across southern Alaska. The
probabilities are strongest across Montana, North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

Rest of the Lower 48: Most other areas, including central ski states such as Colorado and Montana, have equal chances of experiencing above- or below-normal temperatures. Resorts like Breckenridge and Big Sky will need to monitor updates closer to the season for clarity. All these factors together create a comprehensive 2026 winter weather prediction for skiers nationwide.
Temperature specifically about the upper Midwest? Below-average temperatures are slightly
favored from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. Below-average temperatures are also slightly favored across southern Alaska. The
probabilities are strongest across Montana, North Dakota and northern Minnesota.


PRECIPITATION –
Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely over Montana, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley.
NOAA IN SUMMARY? For Minnesota, their maps are saying slightly below normal temps, and slightly above normal precip. But “precip does not mean all snow” as I quote a NOAA forecaster.

WHAT IS THE FARMERS’ ALMANAC SAYING?

(Duluth, Green Bay, International Falls, Marquette, Minneapolis)

Mild winter by local standards with some snowy bursts

Shorter cold snaps may ease winterizing chores, but don’t skip them.
• Temperatures: Above normal
• Coldest periods: Much of December, early and late January, early February
• Precipitation: Below normal
• Snowfall: Below normal; snowiest periods in late November, late January, early February

HOW ABOUT ACCUWEATHER? (here are some key quotes about our area):

"It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic,"
Early in the season, winter storms will track from Canada into the Midwest before pushing toward the mid-Atlantic and New England, where some could strengthen into nor’easters. By late winter, the storm track is expected to shift, bringing systems from the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Appalachians, Midwest and Northeast.
A snowy winter is predicted across portions of the Midwest, a swath from the Plains to the Ohio Valley,

Where Arctic air will hit the hardest
Energy bills could run high as residents in more than a dozen states across the Plains and Midwest turn up the heat during what is likely to be a cold winter. Cold will take hold early in December before easing in January, when a brief thaw is likely. With the absence of an arctic dry air mass, there may be more opportunities for snow. By February, winter is forecast to return in force, with frigid air expanding across the central and eastern U.S.

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS? LINK TO MY STATS/PREDICITON PAGE

Once again, click on this LINK above that will take you through many of my actual winter predictions (numbers). I have been doing this for many years, and traditionally, I still like to submit these numbers as my official predictions for the upcoming winter season. Each month, I will be updating on this link with what did happen officially vs. my predictions, so keep an eye out for that.

IN SUMMARY:

We have been spoiled by an October with above average temperatures in 2025. Very spoiled. Some of that will continue into November, but finally in November, we will start seeing some colder shots of air. As we get past the 20th of November, depending on what longer range model you look at, they show many different outcomes. It will be a guess from that point on especially on the date of the release of this prediction of October 31st. Between November 20th – December 1st – I am seeing some models lining up storms systems coming across the upper Midwest. Some rain, some snow. Others want to hold onto the idea of more calm weather and a bit warmer weather than average at that time. One thing to point out quick is near the middle of November looks pretty darn warm.

So, for November – maybe some later month snow (depends on how cold it gets at times, and where the storm track currently is), and if you include all 30 days in November? On average, warmer than normal temperatures looks the most likely.

December, January, February look to be below normal temps and above normal snowfall overall. March a bit warmer (but snowier than the past couple years), then a cool April which will bring some spring-time snow.

In the end, I do believe this will NOT be a HUGE winter as far as snowfall is concerned, but it will be close to normal which will feel like a lot compared to the last 2 seasons. And temps will fall closer to average to below average as mentioned which will feel a lot colder than it really is just because of how warm the past 2 winters have been.

LINK TO MY STATS/PREDICTION PAGE