Craig's Winter Weather - 2017-2018 -



WINTER WEATHER PREDICTION - PREDICTION FACTORS


 

What kind of year are we in?

Year Kind of year?
2000 - 2001 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA)
2001 - 2002 In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature
2002 - 2003 Moderate El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow)
2003 - 2004 In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature
2004 - 2005 Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow)
2005 - 2006 Forecast is for an in between year - No El Nino or La Nina influence.
2006 - 2007 Very marginable El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow)
2007 - 2008 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA
2008 - 2009 In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature
2009 - 2010 El Nino in place early, became stronger as winter went along - (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow)
2010 - 2011 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA
2011 - 2012 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA
2012 - 2013 In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature
2013 - 2014 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA
2014-2015 In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature
2015 - 2016 Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow)
2016-2017 La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA
2017 - 2018 Surprising that last winter was technically a La Nina season. Tells you that La Nina does not always mean cooler winters. But, for this winter, it is becoming increasing likley that La Nina will develop once again even though during the fall season, we are still at "Neutral" ocean temperatures.
Ocean temperature model forecasts have not been the best for the last year here, so even though it is favored right now to get into a "Weak" La Nina this winter, I am predicting a "Moderate" La Nina. So, it is going to get cooler than the models are painting out in the pacific ocean. This season will end up
being a more normal type of La Nina period, with frequent bouts of snow with a NW pattern being the most dominant. Yes, cold blasts. Yes, warm blasts.
Up and down will be the trend, but nothing will really stick around that long. Better chances at cooler temps than heavy snow.

First Snow Accumulation (1"+)

(Measured in Chanhassen - even if it is just grassy surfaces & not pavement)

Year Date
2000 - 2001 November 7th
2001 - 2002 November 26th
2002 - 2003 December 4th
2003 - 2004 November 3rd
2004 - 2005 January 12th
2005 - 2006 Craig's Prediction: Nov 18th
Actual: Nov. 16th
2006 - 2007 Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th
Actual: Dec. 21st
2007 - 2008 Craig's Prediction: Nov 19th
Actual: Dec. 1st
2008 - 2009 Craig's Prediction: Nov 14th
Actual: Nov 7th!
2009 - 2010 Craig's Prediction: Nov 25th (Oct 12th snow happened prior to predictions)
Actual: Dec 8th
2010 - 2011 Craig's Prediction: Nov 15th
Actual: Nov 13th
2011 - 2012 Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th
Actual: Nov 19th
2012 - 2013 Craig's Prediction: Nov 20th
Actual: December 9th
2013 - 2014 Craig's Prediction: Nov 29th
Actual: Nov 5th
2014 - 2015  Craig's Prediction: November 24th
Actual: November 10th
2015 - 2016  Craig's Prediction: November 29th
Actual: 11/30 - 2.1"
2016- 2017  Craig's Prediction: November 20th
Actual: November 22nd
2017- 2018 Craig's Prediction: November 19th
Actual: TBD

Weather Fun

(Official results from Chanhassen NWS will be used)

Event Prediction Actual
Best Snowpack 12/15 - 2/15  
Coldest Period(s) January & April
Warmest Period(s) February  
BIGGEST Storm December & March  
White X-mas? White, Yes!
5"-10" on the ground
 

  CN'R Lawn N' Landscape - Winter Fun  








First Technical "Plow" for Snow Removal Services

Year Date
2014 - 2015 Prediction:  December 6th
Actual: November 10th
2015 - 2016 Prediction: November 29th
Actual: November 30th
2016- 2017 Prediction:  December 3rd
Actual: November 22nd
2017-2018 Prediction:  November 24th
Actual:
TBD

Season Snowfall Potential

Inches % Chance Notes
45-55 30% 1st BEST chance is near normal.
55-65 25% 2nd BEST chance is a little above
normal.
35-45 20% 3rd BEST chance is a little below
normal
< 35 15% 4th BEST chance is significantly below
normal.
> 65 10% 5th BEST chance is significantly above
normal
Actual 2017-2018: 0.0"


Snow Plower's Delight

(Measured in Chanhassen)
Inches Predicted Season Quantity Actual (to date)
.5 - 1.0 5 0
1.0 - 1.5 3 0
1.5 - 2.0 4 0
2 - 4 5 0
4 - 8 1 0
8 - 12 1 0
12+ 0 0

Temperature Outlook

Month Average Prediction / Actual
October 48.8 Pred: Near Average (1-2o)
Actual:
November 33.2 Pred: Below Average (2-4o)
Actual:
December 17.9 Pred: Near Average (1-2o)
Actual:
January 11.8 Pred: Below Average (2-4o)
Actual:
February 17.9 Pred: Near Average (1-2o)
Actual:
March 31 Pred: Near Average (1-2o)
Actual:
April 46.4 Pred: Below Average (3-5o)
Actual:
Total Avg. 29.6  

Craig's 2015-2016 Winter Snowfall prediction:

 


51.9"


Snowfall Monthly Averages (122 Years)
Month Snowfall Average
October 0.6
November 6.1
December 9.3
January 9.9
February 8.0
March 9.4
April 3.5
Total 47.0


Craig's monthly snowfall predictions and actuals -

 YEAR Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction  Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction TOTAL 
OCT.

OCT.

NOV.

NOV

DEC.  DEC. JAN. JAN. FEB. FEB MAR. MAR. APR. APR. TOTAL DIFF.
2000-2001 0.0 n/a 9.8 n/a 30.2 n/a 9.4 n/a 16.5 n/a 8.6 n/a 1.3 n/a 75.8 64.0 11.8
2001-2002 0.1 0.0 9.4 8.3 8.0 16.8 9.5 10.5 3.1 11.4 15.7 14.7 20.2 0.0 66.0 62.0 4.0
2002-2003 0.6 1.0 1.4 5.3 3.0 22.4 5.1 8.4 10.7 7.7 13.2 7.5 1.0 0.5 31.7 52.8 21.1
2003-2004 Trace 0.0 9.4 7.8 8.0 11.4 10.1 21.5 19.7 8.7 10.4 8.0 Trace 1.0 66.3 58.4 7.9
2004-2005 Trace Trace 0.5 9.9 1.8 8.0 8.6 14.5 8.0 15.2 6.6 11.6 Trace Trace 25.5 49.7 24.2
2005-2006 n/a 0.0 6.6 8.8 20.3 17.0 3.9 7.2 3.5 9.7 14.9 11.7 0.0 0.0 49.2 54.4 5.2
2006-2007 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.8 7.3 7.9 6.6 16.4 17.5 10.2 13.3 9.5  0.0  0.0  45.1 47.9 0.7
2007-2008 0.0 0.0 0.6 8.6 21.3 14.3 2.4 10.5 7.4 18.4 25.0 7.9  3.8 2.0  60.5 61.7 1.2
2008-2009 0.0 0.0 5.9 10.4 21.8 14.9 10.0 10.2 11.9 19.8 3.1 13.5 4.1 2.0 56.8 68.8 12.0
2009-2010 3.6 3.6 Trace 2.7 20.9 8.2 2.3 14.8 18.6 4.2 0.0 13.2 0.0 1.0 41.8 47.7 5.9
2010-2011 0.0 0.0 13.7 8.3 36.4 14.8 15.1 22.6 16.2 10.1 7.9 15.2 0.0 3.2 91.5 72.0 19.5
2011-2012 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.2 6.1 14.4 4.6 19.1 8.9 7.7 0.7 12.9 0.0 1.0 22.2 58.3 36.1
2012-2013 0.0 0.0  0.9 2.5 18.0 7.8 4.6 8.8 14.1 15.2 11.5 12.6 22.8 3.5 71.9 50.4 21.9
2013-2014 Trace Trace 1.8 3.8 16.8 13.1 18.3 10.5 18.4 5.2 3.4 8.8  10.8  0.0  69.5 41.4 28.1
2014-2015 0.0 0.0 8.1 1.7 6.7 10.5 4.5 7.8 4.8 14.7 8.8 15.3 0.5 2.7 33.4 52.7 19.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 9.3 5.7 4.7 3.7 12.9 6.5 5.1 12.2  0.5 0.0 35.5 32.6 2.9
2016-2017 0.0 0.0 5.1 3.9 18.4 13.3 8.9 19.4 Trace 12.9 5.5 6.4  0.6 0.0 38.5 55.9 17.4
2017-2018 0.0 0.7 0.0 4.5 0.0 14.5 0.0 12.1 0.0 8.2 0.0 11.9  0.0 Trace 0.0 51.9 TBD
 YEAR Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction  Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction Actual Craig's Prediction TOTAL 
                                Cumulative Difference = 239.2
      Total Years = 17
      Average Difference = 14.07