Craig's Weather Corner  Follow @BowechoF5

CRAIG’S  Winter Weather Blog - Prediction

 
ORIGINAL BLOG POSTED ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST - 2023

INTRO:
This will be my 24th year with winter predictions. For snowfall totals year to year, I have been as good as 0.7 inches off, and I have been as bad as 62.9 inches off. That 62.9 inches was just last season as we did have an historical winter. Nobody got that right. The last time we had a historical winter was the winter of 2010-2011. That winter happened to be my highest prediction in the past 24 years. We ended up with 91.5 inches that season while my prediction stood at 72.0 inches. The last time we had a very low total was the 2015-2016 season when we only had 35.5 inches. My prediction that season was 32.6, which was 2.9 inches off. Most of the time I use stats to fuel my predictions along with longer range models at the time I put out my predictions. With all this said, will this winter season compare to that 2015-2016 season with 35 inches? Or will it compare to more of the monstrous 2010-2011 season? That season was similar to what we had last year. All this is explained below.

LINKS:
Throughout my blog below, you will continue to see THIS LINK.
This is my stat page, or prediction page of the way I think the numbers will fall into place this winter. I have been doing these stats for many years, and I carry it on as a tradition. I recommend reading my full blog below before clicking over to MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

TITLE?
I do not want to give it away, but I want to call this upcoming winter “pleasant” after a “beastly” winter. Last winter, it (snow) would not end. As said above, very similar to 2010-2011. The biggest difference between both of those 2 winter seasons was that last year we had a handful of less snowfalls, but we had a handful of larger snowfalls. Most of that grand total was fueled by large storm systems, not frequent smaller systems. I remember the winter of 2010-2011 like it was yesterday, it just would not stop – chance after chance after chance. Last winter I had the same feeling for each snowstorm – the snow would just not stop with each event that occurred. Sounds the same, but it was different!?

ENSO - Recent Evolution Predictions:
We have an El Nino Advisory for this winter and into the spring. A STRONG event is likely. Possibly historic which could compare with 2015-2016 & 1997-1998. Any dates look familiar? Yes, of course, and more on that as your read below. Typically, when we do receive STRONG El Nino seasons, it generates a bubble of warmer air over the northern United States which usually keeps snow totals down. “Usually” is a key word. This will be our first El Nino in 4 years!

ANOTHER WARM BUT EVEN DRYER SUMMER:
Yes, this past summer was almost a carbon copy of the summer before. Warm and dry, but it was even warmer and dryer. It does not get much worse last summer before we did actually get good rainfalls later in September and into October. I call it “drought to monsoon”. Seems to be the newer trend…we always make up fast, and because we made a lot of it up (not all of it) already, it could put pressure on the upcoming winter season’s snowfall totals.

LINK TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

COMMON STORM TRACK:
I expect a lot of systems coming in over and around southern California this season. These systems could be strong for many of them, and the scary part is if we can just get enough cold air in place over the upper Midwest, and these systems are able to veer northward a bit, that is when we buck the El Nino trend here in Minnesota. That is when we can get 70-100” of snow during an El Nino season where we are supposed to be warmer and less snow. But it happens actually more often the opposite way. And I expect the common storm track to be more along the southern tier states and even to the SE. I am not saying it is common for large Nor’easter type storms during an El Nino season, but I am saying that we could see some monsters going up the East coast this winter season. A lot more than we have seen over the past few years. It is just all about whether or not these systems can connect to the upper jet to pull in cold enough snow for large blizzards on the east coast, or will it be more rain? In the end, generally the east coast will have more precip while we sit in Minnesota with less precip. Snow or no snow depends on a lot more and is tough to predict from small area to small area. This is not going to be a “clipper” type of storm track for the upper midwest this season. Clippers with snowfall associated with them tend to stay more north of our area and then dive into the NE with strong El Nino’s in place. Some of the “Colorado” developing Low pressure systems during strong El Nino events can take a storm track to our west and keep us more in the warm sector until the end. Or, more commonly, we will watch larger systems to our south…will it hit us? Could be a common theme as we will be on the northern fringe of that track.

STATS & WEATHER TRENDS:

Remember the BOMB Cyclone hurricane (Otis) that landed in Acapulco. All models had that to be a minimal Category 1 hurricane that advanced quickly into a Category 5 hurricane within 12-24 hours! Amazing. Simply amazing! And a perfect sign of a strong El Nino developing. Why? Well, La Nina conditions tend to enhance stronger hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and reduce it in the Pacific. El Nino does the opposite. Otis fed off this El Nino in place, which convinces me that this will be a top 3 El Nino this winter into next spring, and I will not be surprised if it is #1.

Bigger snowfall totals for a winter (like last winter), followed by a strong or VERY strong El Nino winter (like this winter coming):
1964-1965 winter = 73.7” - - - - 1965-1966 winter = 36.1”
1971-1972 winter = 64.4” - - - - 1972-1973 winter = 41.7”
1996-1997 winter = 73.6” - - - - 1997-1998 winter = 45.0”

Strong or very strong El Nino winters that beat the odds!
1991-1992 winter = 84.1”
1982-1983 winter = 74.4”

**the totals above obviously are not perfect, and all examples are not listed, but you get the idea. It shows that it is a greater chance to have a below normal (50”) winter season during a strong El Nino than having an above normal winter.

LEAVES STARTED TO FALL EARLY, THEN 7-10” OF RAIN LATE SEPT/EARLY OCT:
Just like last fall, our trees started to shed their leaves very early this fall (stressed from drought). But then we receive a bunch of rain in a short period of time, and the trees became satisfied and held onto leaves longer. Just think if the 7-10” of rain fell in December? That would be 70-100” of snowfall if the temps were cool enough. I feel that this fall season is different from last fall season where we saw Mother Nature “make up” for the drought in a short period of time prior to winter, opposed to last season, she made up for the drought during the winter season. We had high rivers this past spring, remember the flooding? It was a welcome surprise to see about 100” of snow last winter here for that reason. It built up our rivers and lakes pretty quickly in the spring, but then a new drought started. It is the times of “big swing weather”, get used to it! Global warming is fact, a natural fact, that no human can prevent. Weather has changed and continues to change towards more volatility. Movie = “The Day After Tomorrow”.


WHAT IS NOAA SAYING?
NOAA is my first trusted source. I do like to get all my most reliable information from NOAA. This organization is KING, and they are not deviating with their forecast too far away from what typically happens on a strong El Nino season. Within a certain forecast, there will be anomalies in certain areas that buck the trend so to speak. This is totally normal. What forecasters do for longer range is stay general, and as soon as you get too detailed, it seems the results are less accurate. So, while reading any particular winter forecast per say, a general over-lay is what you usually see. Back to NOAA – they tend to see winter as the time between 3 months, Dec, Jan, Feb. I personally like to look at November and March getting into the act for predictions. But for those 3 months, NOAA is advertising warmer conditions to the northern US, and wetter conditions to the southern US. If this all comes true generally speaking, it will be good for our southern states’ drought conditions. Sometimes El Nino can prove to bring in huge systems to southern California causing wash out mud slide problems as well. So, with more rain brings other catastrophic events and as some of these systems glide along the southern states, you see more freezing rain down south on the northern fringe. You get the good with the bad and the bad with the good. Bottom line, for Minnesota, NOAA is forecasting a bit above average temps. Average precip (not below). Could this amount to a near normal snow total for the season at MSP? Good question, it will obviously depend on the temps, but if we can crank up a bit above average on the moisture side, we can make up for some of the missed events that we do get, or events that are more rain, then changing to snow late where we do not get as much snow from system to system (such as a Colorado Low pressure system tracking too far to our west as talked about above).

WHAT IS THE FARMERS’ ALMANAC SAYING?
Ok, the Farmers’ Almanac – my favorite source for winter predictions. Do I sound sarcastic? Well, yes, I am being sarcastic. As far as their yearly predictions, this organization does like to put a lot of details in small windows of time which is very suspect. For example, “fair, cold, then turning stormy; a heavy snowfall into Nebraska/Dakotas” – for November 24th - 27th. I say, if they are correct, lucky guess! I am just not much into that type of detail that far out. It is like weather Apps these days that go a month out. Do you think the App is really using technology to put a forecast together for a month out? No. What it is doing is using model technology for the first 10 days, and then it puts what happens on average for the next 20 days and updates as days go by. That is exactly what the Farmers’ Almanac is doing here. They state what usually happens or what can happen and hope their coin flip is correct. But in general, their United States winter map for the 2023-2024 season is stating that a larger part of the US will be “cold and snowy”!? No kidding, right. Of course, most states eventually get cold and some snow, but for the Farmers’ Almanac painting this large of an area with cold/snowy conditions is kind of going against what a normal El Nino would do – and we have a STRONG one coming! Too wide of an area in my opinion. They do have wetter conditions to the south, and dryer conditions to the NW, which we all agree on. Bottom line – expect El Nino to be a BIG factor in most areas across the US. The one item I did read on their platform is this:

“Under certain combinations of meteorological conditions, the polar vortex can be displaced from the North Pole, which could open the door for cold blasts to hit southern Canada and the central and eastern United States during this upcoming winter.”

This could make it a very intense snowfall season for someone in the central/northern states if this cold air can meet up with some of these stronger storms coming in from the southern Pacific. Where that is going to be is almost impossible to predict, but there could be an area that bucks the trend as I wrote about already above under “Common Storm Track”.


MY OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS?  GO TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE 

Once again, click on THIS LINK that will take you through many of my actual winter predictions (numbers). I have been doing this for many years, and traditionally, I still like to submit these numbers as my official predictions for the upcoming winter season. Each month, I will be updating on that link with what did happen officially vs. my predictions, so keep an eye out for that. When I update these, I do post it on my Twitter handle @bowechoF5.

NEXT BLOG UPDATE?

As promised, Craig has now produced a smaller blog update posted on 1/15/24. Craig likes to follow up and check in to see how the winter is going and likes to compare his predictions that were released back on 11/1/23. Please scroll further down and read the paragraph in RED to gather Craig’s mid-winter thoughts!

JANUARY 15TH, 2024 BLOG UPDATE:
Within my blog above, I have highlighted a lot of accurate predictions that I made back on 11/1/23. In chronological order of how it reads above, here are the key points.

 - a “pleasant” winter this year compared to a “beastly” winter last year - this so far has proven accurate to this point.
 - BIG El Nino - we all knew this was coming, but sometimes it is tough to tell how it will affect our weather. This seems like a classic STRONG EL Nino this year (record breaking?) that is affecting our entire country pretty much on par.
 - “Larger Storm Track to our south” - yes, we have had some near misses and some larger snow storms to the south as of late. And the East coast getting in on the action. In December when it was not cold enough for snow, same thing happed with more consistent storms staying more to our south even though we did get some December rains as far north as Minnesota at times.
 - “Warmer than Normal” - again, more times that not, strong El Nino seasons do result in warmer winters, and so far we are WAY over average overall through mid-January. At the time of this blog on 1/15/24, it is our coldest week of the winter, but even as this coldest week is upon us, longer range forecasts are calling for WAY above normal temperatures to return during the latter half of January once this cold spell retreats.
 - “starved for snowfall at times” - this is definitely proving to be true.
 - “cold air tough to find” - again, a VERY warm December and early January, and our first very cold spell around January 15th, but warmer air on its way again - this fits my prediction of cold air being tough to find.
 - “under 45 inches of snow this year” is looking good so far, but this could change with more snow later in the season.
 - I did mention more freezing rain or ice storm chances this season. This has not materialized to this point, but we still have about 1/2 of winter to go. You sometimes see more ice/rain/frz rain during strong El Nino seasons, so I was expecting to see a little more of this for this winter, but again, has not really happened too much in MN.

Overall - my winter forecast is on track for a balmy winter with snow lacking. Through January 15th, 2024, we have received a wimpy 4.4” of snow which is a little below my prediction pace at this time. I do still believe we will be warmer more times than colder for the second half of the winter season, and I do still believe our total snowfall will still make it it 20”+, but no more than 40”. Remember last year with 100” total? Pleasant vs Beastly. It always averages out eventually.

IN SUMMARY:
Above, I have summed up a lot of things already, but at this point in my blog, you are still wondering…what direction is Craig thinking? I am going to back the stats for a typically strong El Nino winter season. This will provide us here in the Minneapolis area with warmer than normal conditions with less moisture. As you will see on my predictions page, we will starve at times for snow. Winter is winter, we will get our snow from time to time. If it is spread out over 5 months, it will not seem like a lot. If we get 20” in one month, it will end up feeling like a strong winter when the final total still stays below normal (with some months with merely no snow). The stats prove that generally we will stay below 45” of snow. 30’s are more likely, and it is a lot less likely we will get 65”+ this season as we did last winter. Expect winter at times, expect some rain this winter, freezing rain as well because really cold air may be tough to find. How about an old fashion windy ice storm? We will have a below normal temperature month somewhere in there, but I do think the above average temps will ultimately out-weight the below normal temps this season. I just hope total snowfall does not turn out to be like 20-30”. If we can sneak out 45” this season, I think that is a win! And for winter lovers, it might be a good thing that we are warmer this winter. As long as we can get just enough snow, it will be good for outdoor winter activities. If we do not get as much snow, and we do see that rain/freezing rain mix more often, then some outdoor activities may not be the best that require fresh snow. I just do not see it being a consistently snow-covered winter. And then for all the winter haters? This could be your season!


@bowechoF5
LINK TO MY STAT/PREDICTIONS PAGE